Supercomputer predicts Premier League top four race after Chelsea & Man City slip up
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The Premier League takes in its final breath by ushering in the first international break of 2025, with a frantic run-in on the horizon.
With Liverpool 12 points clear at the summit and the newly promoted clubs declining in competitiveness by the game, it’s become abundantly clear where the pressure points lie down the stretch.
The race for Europe is hotly competitive. Just five points separate fourth and tenth after the weekend’s action, which saw Chelsea and Manchester City both drop points again.
Here’s how Opta’s supercomputer is projecting the top-four dogfight to play out with just nine games of the 2024/25 Premier League season remaining.
|
Position |
Team |
Expected points |
Chances of top four/Champions League (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
|
1. |
Liverpool |
89.43 |
100 |
|
2. |
Arsenal |
76.75 |
99.82 |
|
3. |
Nottingham Forest |
67.84 |
70.21 |
|
4. |
Man City |
66.02 |
58.44 |
|
5. |
Newcastle |
63.95 |
30.44 |
|
6. |
Chelsea |
63.34 |
27.37 |
|
7. |
Brighton |
60.73 |
8.32 |
|
8. |
Aston Villa |
58.52 |
3.02 |
|
9. |
Bournemouth |
57.47 |
1.68 |
|
10. |
Fulham |
55.63 |
0.56 |
After losing out to La Liga and Serie A last season, the Premier League are well on track to earning an extra qualifying spot for the 2025/26 Champions League. Thus, the top five are likely to progress into Europe’s premier club competition, and Newcastle’s Carabao Cup success on Sunday means there’s still a chance as many as 11 English clubs enjoy continental ventures next term.
Liverpool and Arsenal are as good as assured of their places in the top four, while Nottingham Forest have opened up a healthy buffer after claiming back-to-back wins. Nuno Espirito Santo’s side are now four and five points clear of Chelsea and Man City respectively. As a result, Opta rates Forest’s chances of returning to Europe’s top table for the first time since 1980/81 at 70.21%.
Despite losing at the City Ground and struggling their way to a point at home to Brighton on Saturday, the vulnerable reigning champions are projected to finish just behind Forest in fourth with 66.02 points. City are well-backed to claim a top four spot, but Chelsea’s stock has taken a hit after their lifeless display at Arsenal which returned a 1-0 defeat.
The Blues are now predicted to finish below a buoyant Newcastle outfit who have already qualified for at least the Conference League by virtue of their success at Wembley. However, the Magpies will relinquish that spot should they claim a Europa League or Champions League spot via league position. Their projected fifth-place finish should see them return to the Champions League.
Eddie Howe’s side are currently a point adrift of Chelsea and City having played a game less.
Opta isn’t too bullish on Brighton’s hopes despite their recent form and result at the Etihad Stadium. They’re just two points back from an out-of-sorts Chelsea, yet the supercomputer rates their chances of securing a maiden Champions League berth at 8.32%. Aston Villa (3.02%), Bournemouth (1.68%), and Fulham (0.56%) all have remote chances.
Crystal Palace, meanwhile, are projected to be the beneficiaries of an unprecedented situation which could see 11 clubs qualify for Europe.
All they need is Villa to win the Champions League while finishing between eighth and tenth, Manchester United or Tottenham Hotspur to win the Europa League while claiming a spot in the top half, and Chelsea to win the Conference League and finish eighth to tenth. Forest, City, and Newcastle must also join Liverpool and Arsenal in the top five. Simple.
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